У роботі представлено та проаналізовано взаємозв"язок характеристик термічного та льодового режимів річок з температурою повітря на прикладі басейну Південного Бугу. На основі отриманих розрахункових залежностей визначено основні статистичні характеристики та допустимі похибки. Апробовано методику оцінки змін вище зазначених характеристик на незалежному періоді та визначено ефективність методики.
В работе представлено и проанализировано взаимосвязь характеристик термического и ледового режимов рек с температурой воздуха на примере рек бассейна Южного Буга. На основе полученных расчетных зависимостей определены основные статистические характеристики и допустимые ошибки. Опробована методика оценки изменений указанных характеристик на независимом периоде, и определена эффективность методики.
In the paper the correlation of the characteristics of thermal and ice regimes of rivers with air temperature are presented and analyzed on the example of the Southern Buh River Basin. The graphical dependencies of characteristics of ice (the appearance of ice phenomena, the formation of stable freezing, the average and maximum thickness of ice, breaking up and cleaning rivers from ice) and thermal regime by causes of the air temperature were created. The suff&iciently significant closeness of correlation for individual characteristics of ice regime (the thickness of the ice cover and spring ice phenomena) and for thermal regime of the river of study basin was identified. The graphical dependencies with hi&gh the coefficient pair correlation were chosen as the calculation. On the basis these of the calculated dependencies the statistical estimation of the possibility of prediction of the study characteristics was carried out and allowable errors were c&alculated. The methodology of estimation changes shown above characteristics of the independent period was tested and the effectiveness of the methodology was identified. It was identified that in most cases the proposed methodology of forecast for t&he Southern Bug River Basin is good and effective.
