Установлені основні тенденції зміни кліматичних чинників формування стоку та водних ресурсів Північно-Західного Причорномор"я на основі моделі "клімат-стік" у майбутньому з використанням сценаріїв глобальної зміни клімату RCP4.5 та RCP8.5. Показано, що до середини XXI сторіччя умови формування стоку річок будуть погіршуватися, що призведе до зменшення водних ресурсів на -37.4% за сценарієм RCP4.5, а за сценарієм RCP8.5 на -48.6%.
Установлены основные тенденции изменения климатических факторов формирования стока и водных ресурсов Северо-Западного Причерноморья на основе модели "климат-сток" в будущем с использованием сценариев глобального изменения климата RCP4.5 и RCP8.5. Показано, что к середине XXI века условия формирования стока рек будут ухудшаться, что приведет к уменьшению водных ресурсов на -37.4% по сценарию RCP4.5, а по сценарию RCP8.5 - на -48.6%.
Data of climate change scenarios RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 (Representative Concentration Pathways) are used. They were proposed for consideration in the Fifth Report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in Geneva. Average long-term annual flow values using meteorological data (air temperature and precipitation) from the scenarios for the period 2011-2050 were calculated. Ten points (grid nod&es) uniformly distributed on the territory of North-Western Black Sea Region were studied. The calculations were made based on the model "climate-runoff", developed in Odessa State Environmental University. As the inputs to the model climatic factors& of the flow are used. They are defined on the basis of observations in the past or from models of global warming in the future. And the outputs are the characteristics of natural and domestic flow in different climatic conditions. Projection of chan&ges in water resources was given by comparing the calculation results in the past (before 1989) and in the future (2011-2050). By integral curves were established that fluctuations in precipitation will be in the dry phase to the middle 30s of the XX&I century under both scenarios. In 30s "bursts" of moisture will be possible on the background of negative phase. Further dry phase of precipitation fluctuations will be continue. The major trends in water resources of North-Western Black Sea Region &were established. It is shown that by the middle of the XXI century conditions of river flow formation will be deteriorate. This will lead to decreasing of water resources up to -40% according to temperate scenario RCP4.5, and almost -50% according t&o more aggressive scenario RCP8.5. Analysis of changes in the ratio of moisture and heat resources showed that climate aridity will be intensify and the insufficient moisture zone and the semiarid zone will be widen. The process of moving a forest-st&eppe zone could lead to catastrophic consequences, because ecosystems do not have time to adapt to the sudden and rapid changes in climate.
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